It’s fashionable to give away gay little awards and make predictions at this time of year, so here’s my take. Here’s my wish-list for the year, along with their relative probabilities.

Wish 1: National and ACT to finally sound off like they’ve got a pair.

Nine years in purgatory! Nine long long, lonely years, and what do you have to show from your first year back in power (where you belong)? Ummm cancelled tax cuts and compulsory headlights for motorcyclists.

Come on, you soft pricks!

You can’t placate the bureaucrats, supplicate the Maoris, appease the radicals, lenify the special interests and try to be everyone’s fucking friend forever. Get you hands off the young nat muffins and sound off like you’ve got a pair.

Key seems to have the strategy that if only he doesn’t rock the boat on anything whatsoever, don’t do anything that may just put anyone’s nose out of joint, even a little-biddy bit then he’ll get re-elected.

The result has been that Helen Clark gets a fourth term. Meet the new boss—same as the old boss.

Most grating to me this last year was not so much the cancellation of the tax cuts; it was the way it was done. After years of preaching to us from the opposition benches that tax cuts were the best way to rev-up the economy, and how Labour was bloating the economy with inefficient spending, what’s the first thing they do when the economy hits an air-pocket? They run away like little girls, cancel the tax cuts and spend-up on a cycle path the length of the country.

Even more grating still was the flimsy excuse: ignore all those huge surpluses, and predict massive spending blow-outs, which was curiously enough based on the continuation of the spending numbers put forward by Labour. I mean, anyone would suspect that they didn’t actually believe their own rhetoric about cutting taxes, wouldn’t they?

As for ACT: for the “party of principle” they sure were easy to buy off huh? Did you ever think you would see ACT standing up in Parliament and clap a budget that cut tax cuts and promised to try to spend our way out of a recession? Did you?

Probability of National and ACT growing a pair: 20%. Perhaps the Nats are just waiting until the recession is over. Perhaps ACT will collectively come back from a business class trip overseas. Perhaps they are just getting ready to do what they said they were going to do. Perhaps. Perhaps. Perhaps. No chance.

Wish 2:
“environmentalism” and the Greens to finally run out of get-out-of-jail-free cards.

This is a perennial wish of mine. I just hope for an end to this fawning that the Greens get from the Press Gallery, and for their MPs and policies to finally get the scrutiny that others expect from the fourth estate. Most notably, I’d love a serious objective cost-benefit analysis of their ban-it, tax-it, regulate-it policy platform. Instead we should look forward to another year of soft-balling treatment for the Greens.

Case in point: peak oil. When oil was over $150 a barrel, the Greens would rejoice and issue a press release every time it moved up, gleefully heralding the end of capitalism. Funny how no-one’s asking them why they’ve gone curiously quiet now that it’s at about $50.

Probability: 10% Those adorable, hugable, smelly Greens will still keep getting the kid-gloves.

World-wide I’m a bit more optimistic—at last something approaching a reasoned argument about global warming. The questions that should have been asked years ago are finally being asked: It is real? Do humans cause it? Can we stop it? Is it good or bad? How much will it cost? Is it worth it?

Probability: 50%

Wish 3: For Simon Cowell to be kidnapped, tortured and raped and then slowly choked to death, the same way he has done so to music and television.

Probability: 25%. Even though he is the most hated, despised person in Britain, never underestimate the herding instinct in humans.

Wish 4: for FIFA to actually get tough on diving, play-acting, theatrics, intimidation of referees, and defenders sticking up their arms appealing for off-side every time the other team scores a goal, before the World Cup becomes an unwatchable farce in which Spanish and Portuguese speaking poofs spend the whole month of the tournament rolling around on the ground in agony.

I’m more concerned about this than my mum’s safety in South Africa during the tournament.

Probability: 0.0002%. Sepp “where’s the hookers?” Blatter actually doing something that everyone wants? No chance.

(BTW: My mum gets to support 3 teams this time! New Zealand for the first 2 weeks (until they get knocked out), England for the next 3 days (until they get knocked out) and then Italy until the final.)

Wish 4: Labour in Britain to get the boot.

Do you really want me to list the reasons?
Probability: 94%

Wish 5: Obama to finally get found out for the snake oil salesman he is.

Even though he has the MSM in the tank, even though you are clearly a racist if you criticise him, he is now into his second year of power and can no longer really automatically blame Bush whenever anything bad happens and take the credit whenever anything good happens.

Probability: 45%. I seriously believe that this guy has a limited shelf life and is 25% of his way through his time as president.

Wish 6: For the economy to make comeback

When the economy tanks, people suffer. They lose their jobs and the quality of life goes backwards. A strong, dynamic, growing economy is the best social welfare policy. Plus I get to buy all sorts of cool electronic shit.

Probability: 65%. I don’t think that “it’s inevitable” that the economy will rebound, it doesn’t have to by right, and fuel prices could be on the way up. But on balance the world economy should be in a better place by this time next year.

Wish 7: for the Beatles to finally remove “Back in the USSR” from the White Album.

Probability: 0%. With only Ringo to say no, Paul McCartney (who is actually a crab-person) may even INCREASE the number of syrupy, crappy pop-songs on the albums.

Wish 8: For the Apple iSlate not to suck.

Probability: 5%. Sooner or later, one of their products must suck, they can’t all be superior, well designed, ergonomic, dependable masterpieces can they?

Wish 9: for the following people to harden the fuck up:
The All Blacks
Shane Bond
The Black Caps batting order
The England football team
David Farrar
The Phoenix
The Labour Party
The Press Gallery
Aimee
The Gman
The Welsh
Anti-biotics
NASA